Spatio-temporal Patterns of Precipitation in Iraq: A Quantitative Assessment Using Station Datasets
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.31530/cjnst.2026.2.1.6Keywords:
Applied Statistics, Multiple Linear Regression, Standardized Precipitation Index, Climate Change Impact, Drought Analysis, Spatial-Temporal Analysis, IraqAbstract
Background: Iraq’s water security faces a critical, pressing issue due to the accelerated impact of climate change.
Aims: The study aims to conduct quantitative, long-term analyses of climate change impacts using a detailed dataset. The specific aim of this study is to investigate the impact of static geographic factors and temporal trends on climate change.
Methodology: The study used a comprehensive statistical approach to the dataset collected from four different locations: Sulaymaniyah, Baghdad, Basrah, and Al-Rutba. The methodology used for this study is spatial analysis, which uses Multivariate Analysis of Variance (MANOVA) and Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) to investigate the impact of geographic factors, and temporal analysis, which uses trend assessment and the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI).
Results: The spatial analysis confirmed the findings of other studies that geographic location is the primary factor in the climate change baseline, with the MLR model explaining 90% of the variance in annual precipitation. This analysis revealed a significant orographic effect, whereby for every 100 meters of height, there is a corresponding 40.6 mm of precipitation. The spatial analysis also revealed a significant trend at all four locations, which corresponds with the results of the temporal analysis. Most importantly, this analysis revealed a critical drought trend as measured by the SPI.
Conclusion: The results indicate that geography provides the essential setting for the findings, and quantification confirms this. The research established a strong, statistically significant warming trend across all examined areas. The results indicate a significant negative trend in each of the cities examined. Consequently, the region is heading towards drier conditions, with a dynamic shift towards aridification and desertification potential within its stable climatic and topographic framework. This necessitates the development of region-specific water management strategies and the establishment of a national drought early warning system.
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